Tripoli has no navy or a rocket arsenal . The real threat is the wave of immigrants from the Libyan coast now out of control
What have we to fear from Gaddafi? Little or nothing in reality, especially from the military point of view. Maybe someone will remember the two Scud ballistic missiles that Colonel (perhaps it has never really been clearly established) against a U.S. communications station at Lampedusa. Tranquilli, those missiles are gone. As there are almost certainly even more weapons for mass destruction, including mustard gas munitions that were dismantled after the "conversion" of Gaddafi in 2004. So what remains? Libya no longer has a navy war, so the sea there are no worries, if not for those who wish to enter the Libyan coastal waters. Remains at the sky.
But as he finally admitted the French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, the much-feared Libyan Air Force has only a few dozen helicopters and combat aircraft can still fly. And they are using the most in recent weeks, albeit with poor results. The aircraft are flown by experienced pilots, but every day wear parts and weapons that can not be replaced. And the rate of attrition is high, accidents, defections and the centers of anti-insurgent, due mostly all'insipienza aviators. The few French Mirage F1 production, the Sukhoi Su-22, the few Su-24 are the standard technology for almost 30 years ago and I'm not really a credible threat. Once fully activated, the no-fly zone Libyan pilots tried to take off (if they are not Libyan aircraft destroyed on the ground) would become suicidal, even worse than what happens to pilots Serbs in 1999.
If some air could overcome the no-fly zones and focus on Italy should first pass the invincible armada naval anti-aircraft units that are deployed in the Mediterranean and then the NATO air defense that will protect southern Italy, like France, including islands and other allied countries. "Pierce" a similar device, with airplanes constantly flying radar, ground surveillance radar, advanced fighters on patrol, ready to launch interceptors and, finally, a good number of anti-aircraft missile batteries that can be deployed to the south, at least to protect the targets military? If a Libyan plane could get through this then drop a few bombs and could not go back, both in terms of fuel and because would be hunted down and destroyed in flight.
No, the only real danger is terrorism. Gaddafi has already proven in the past know how to organize and pay terrorists capable of targeting aircraft and set off bombs. But these operations were organized in time and implemented in the scenario pre Eleven September. Today things have changed profoundly, for better security inside the West. And Gaddafi has not had the opportunity and time to prepare anything, nor has "suicide martyrs." Al Qaida for a bit 'of millions of dollars could possibly help out or find some "shake" but the Italian intelligence believes these assumptions and not very remote.
But as he finally admitted the French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, the much-feared Libyan Air Force has only a few dozen helicopters and combat aircraft can still fly. And they are using the most in recent weeks, albeit with poor results. The aircraft are flown by experienced pilots, but every day wear parts and weapons that can not be replaced. And the rate of attrition is high, accidents, defections and the centers of anti-insurgent, due mostly all'insipienza aviators. The few French Mirage F1 production, the Sukhoi Su-22, the few Su-24 are the standard technology for almost 30 years ago and I'm not really a credible threat. Once fully activated, the no-fly zone Libyan pilots tried to take off (if they are not Libyan aircraft destroyed on the ground) would become suicidal, even worse than what happens to pilots Serbs in 1999.
If some air could overcome the no-fly zones and focus on Italy should first pass the invincible armada naval anti-aircraft units that are deployed in the Mediterranean and then the NATO air defense that will protect southern Italy, like France, including islands and other allied countries. "Pierce" a similar device, with airplanes constantly flying radar, ground surveillance radar, advanced fighters on patrol, ready to launch interceptors and, finally, a good number of anti-aircraft missile batteries that can be deployed to the south, at least to protect the targets military? If a Libyan plane could get through this then drop a few bombs and could not go back, both in terms of fuel and because would be hunted down and destroyed in flight.
No, the only real danger is terrorism. Gaddafi has already proven in the past know how to organize and pay terrorists capable of targeting aircraft and set off bombs. But these operations were organized in time and implemented in the scenario pre Eleven September. Today things have changed profoundly, for better security inside the West. And Gaddafi has not had the opportunity and time to prepare anything, nor has "suicide martyrs." Al Qaida for a bit 'of millions of dollars could possibly help out or find some "shake" but the Italian intelligence believes these assumptions and not very remote.
There is of course one last arrow in the quiver of the Colonel, to use the "bomb immigration." Of course this form of aggression has no military significance, but of course could create serious problems for the police and the Ministry of Interior, which would face an unusually large influx of displaced persons, refugees and desperate, no more "drained" from the controls the land and sea borders of Libya. However regardless the wishes of the Libyan dictator, a situation of continued instability or civil conflict in Libya would help the race to Italy. That was until the Libyan institutions will resume work and want to participate or international stabilization force will have assumed control of the country.
Andrea Native
0 comments:
Post a Comment